Ken Livingstone, Labour's candidate for mayor of London. Photograph: Martin Godwin for the Guardian
As the days before the London elections run out, the opinion polls are making my head spin. A YouGov survey on Monday showed Boris Johnson's head-to-head lead over Ken Livingstone shrinking to just two points compared with six in a poll by the same company the previous week and eight in the YouGov before that. The small print suggested that the latest shift towards the Labour candidate was due to the national government's unpopularity.
But then came a new poll from ComRes . This showed Boris lengthening his lead over Ken to eight points compared with six in the previous ComRes. In this case, the small print indicated that Boris was immune to the misfortunes of the coalition led by fellow Conservatives. In other words, the ComRes polls have been telling precisely the opposite story to the YouGov ones. Huh? And now there's a poll from a third company, Survation, which also gives Boris an eight point lead. Yet YouGov's surveys were the most accurate in 2008. What does it all mean?
Well, the one consistent feature of all these polls has been Boris in the lead. Ken hasn't been in first place since January. He's still trailing the general support for Labour in London while Boris is well ahead of the Tories'. Can Ken win? Another clear lead for Boris from the pollsters early next week would be discouraging for him, but for now the evidence still allows for a close outcome.
I hope very much that Ken prevails. His policy programme is both imaginative and practical, and he has the will and experience to put it into effect. Londoners who prefer the Lib Dem Brian Paddick, the Green Party's Jenny Jones or the left of centre independent Siobhan Benita might reflect that each of these contenders - who have no hope of winning - shares common ground with Ken in wanting to reduce or tightly limit rises in public transport fares and take what measures they can to ease London's housing crisis in all its many depressing forms. Boris cannot say the same.
I set out my case for Ken earlier this week. Here's the final paragraph again:
We Londoners have two votes for mayor, a first and a second preference. The message from the polls is that under this supplementary vote system, either would be of equal value to the two frontrunners in the race. The result in 2012 will matter much more than the one four years ago. Londoners wishing to stop Conservatism having the run of their city should not hesitate to give one of their two votes to Livingstone and neither to the Conservative incumbent, whom Livingstone alone can defeat.
May the frontrunner with the best policies win.
The Guardian on London
Ken Livingstone: 'This isn't a race to elect a chat-show host'
London needs a champion and Boris Johnson doesn't qualify
If politics becomes a game show, elites call the shots
Boris Johnson 'has done virtually nothing to tackle youth violence'
Boris Johnson drops hard line against London fare cuts
London looks to export council tenants
Newham's housing saga is just latest episode in a larger London story
London's vulnerable families will not benefit from being forced north
Boris Johnson: his housing benefit denials are looking thin
When Ken Livingstone met the London Jewish Forum
Oona King joins Ken Livingstone team
Why do women vote for Boris Johnson?
London mayoral election live blog - police and crime Q&A
Met inspector latest to be arrested for alleged racism
London blogosphere
Barnet's Mrs Angry concludes a lengthy blogpost thus:
If you are happy with the way things are now, here in Broken Barnet, you will no doubt be flocking to the polling stations in a week's time to register your support for Brian Coleman and the Conservative candidates on the GLA.
If you have any regard for the future of this borough, however, you will be supporting Andrew Dismore next Thursday, kicking Brian Coleman out of his seat, and sending a clear message to the treacherous fools running this council: we have had enough, and we are not putting up with it anymore.
Dismore has a real chance of unseating the very famous Coleman in one of the more intriguing constituency contests (see yellow ballot paper here). To read the start of Mrs Angry's blogpost, step this way.
Coming up
Polling day, 3 May. That's all.